Agenda 2030 & Beyond: Sustainable Development in an Age of Geopolitics
Amid rising power politics and a weakening multilateral system, Agenda 2030 is faltering. Emerging powers must forge alliances to revive SDG progress beyond 2030.
The pursuit of sustainable futures as outlined in the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development has never been more urgent—or more politically contested. At the same time, the ability of the international community to jointly shape a cooperative multipolar world seems to be put to the test, with power politics increasingly taking precedence over rules in determining the future.
Agenda 2030: A Sobering Midpoint
The international consensus reached in 2015 to ambitiously build sustainable futures seems to be crumbling. The 2023 midpoint review of the Agenda 2030 painted a sobering picture: only 17 percent of all SDG targets were ‘on track’, progress was attested in altogether 65 percent, while 35 percent were regarded as stagnant or in regression. The reasons are complex: financial constraints, geopolitical tensions, and social resistance to change. On 4 March 2025, the United States “rejects and denounces the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development”, as stated by US representative Edward Heartney at the United Nations General Assembly.
The ability of the international community to jointly shape a cooperative multipolar world seems to be put to the test, with power politics increasingly taking precedence over rules in determining the future.
A Shifting Global Order
At the beginning of January 2026, US’s military intervention in Venezuela, which is widely viewed as a breach of international law, and the abduction of the autocratically ruling President Maduro illustrate the erosion of a multilateral order, built on shared law and guiding principlesRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s power projections in the South China Sea all point to a world where power politics is increasingly overriding established rules.
At the same time, the multilateral system itself faces mounting strain. The United Nations (UN) is undergoing a profound reform process. Immense budget cuts demand far-reaching institutional restructuring and reorientation. Also, the OECD development system is in deep crisis as financial cutbacks in many donor countries and asymmetric donor-recipient attitudes no longer reflect the mutual dependencies of the 21st century.
Global Leadership for the Agenda 2030
Despite these challenges, there are signs of continued global leadership. In 2024, the international community reaffirmed its ambition for accelerated SDG action on the level of the United Nations General Assembly in the Pact for the Future and at the Summit of the Future.
In the plurilateral context and under South Africa’s G20 presidency—following Indonesia, India and Brazil—the 2030 Agenda remained a central guiding framework. During Brazil’s presidency of last year’s climate conference, it advocated for an ambitious climate policy. South Africa, during its G20 presidency, set focus on debt solutions, food security, and climate finance. Indonesia and India, during their respective G20 presidencies in recent years, also championed a development-oriented and cooperative international order. Further, the European Union firmly embeds its Council’s Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 into the Agenda 2030, while responding to election results that call for national and European interests ‘first’ in policy fields such as security and migration. Similarly, the African Union’s Agenda 2063, including the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), continues to represent a bold vision for structural transformation and self-reliance for the continent.
The European Union firmly embeds its Council’s Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 into the Agenda 2030, while responding to election results that call for national and European interests ‘first’ in policy fields such as security and migration.
China, too, underlines its support for the Agenda 2030, through its Global Development Initiative, designed to mobilise action in line with the SDGs. This initiative complements Beijing’s broader suite of proposals, includingthe Global Civilisation Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and its most recent Global Governance Initiative, announced at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit on 31 August to 1 September 2025, in Tianjin, China. Thus, while the West seems to be dismantling its cooperation infrastructures, alternative offers are being formulated by emerging powers in the field of sustainability, as well as in the field of global climate governance.
Agenda 2030 and Beyond: A Political Programme
Middle powers need to collectively stand while reaffirming what the Agenda 2030 holds as a promise to current and future generations. The Agenda 2030 becomes more (geo-)political. The debate on an “Agenda 2030 and beyond” offers an important point of reference in this regard. Progressive alliances across continents and income groups, new forums beyond traditional summit diplomacy, and stronger involvement of multilateral institutions could help to mobilise, accelerate, and reinvigorate the SDGs.
Agenda 2030 was never intended to be a ‘recipe for action’ that requires implementation only. Rather, it is a political programme negotiated by the international community of states. Today, however, the political economy of transformation, transregional spill-overs and trade-offs, winners and losers, long-term change processes versus short-term interests has become increasingly visible. Negotiating these in a geopolitically-charged world requires the political will across countries from all regions and income levels and a rule-based multilateral institutional landscape, where the norm is upheld, irrespective of size or power.
One concrete area of action here, for instance, could be the joint development of social and ecological standards for the economic cooperations planned.
Strategic and reliable partnerships amongst middle powers, such as between Germany and the European Union, as well as India, become central. The conclusion of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement on 27 January 2026 lays the groundwork for jointly building a ‘Beyond 2030’-Agenda. One concrete area of action here, for instance, could be the joint development of social and ecological standards for the economic cooperations planned. Important upcoming platforms for building alliances for sustainable futures include, besides Raisina Dialogues 2026, the Munich Security Conference and the Hamburg Sustainability Conference. The future lies in the geoeconomic and geopolitical alliances built via foreign policy, by the private sector, civil societies, and academia.
Anna-Katharina Hornidge is Director of the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) and Professor of Global Sustainable Development at the University of Bonn.